|11 July 2018|
|Half the STI Constituents Averaged 1.5%+ Daily Trading Ranges in 1H18|
At the end of June, the 90 day historical volatility of the Straits Times Index (“STI”) stood at 13.6% which was three-fifths higher than the end of 2017 level of 8.4%. Moreover the non-weighted average 90 day volatility of the entire 30 constituents stood at 22.5% at the end of June, up a third from 16.7% at the end of 2017.
As from historical volatility, daily trading ranges present the difference between the highest and lowest trading price in the course of a trading session. These ranges can be measured by multiple methods..
The average annualised intraday volatility of the 30 STI stocks was 18.1% for the first six months of 2018.
The five STI stocks with the highest intraday volatility for the six months were Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Hutchinson Port Holdings Trust, Genting Singapore, Venture Corporation and ComfortDelGro Corporation.
Intraday volatility represents the standard deviation of logarithmic midpoint price returns at one-minute intervals throughout the trading day, annualised and shown in percentage form. Median daily values are used to calculate the six month averages.
Daily Trading Ranges
The average daily amplitude or session trading range for the 30 STI stocks was 164.2 bps for the first six months of 2018.
The daily bps range or daily bps amplitude represents the median of the difference between the daily high and daily low price divided by the Value Weighted Average Price (‘VWAP’) of the stock. Again, median daily values are used to calculate the six month averages.
As many as 15 STI stocks averaged daily trading ranges over 150 bps or 1.50% in the first six months of the year, ranging from UOL Group & Wilmar International’s 1.52% to Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holding’s 3.24%. These 15 stocks also averaged 21.4% intraday volatility over the six months.
The table below is sort by daily ranges or amplitudes in terms of bps for the six months.
Source: SGX StockFacts, Bloomberg (Data as of 30 June 2018). Note Median daily values are used to calculate the six month averages.
The VWAP is calculated using total traded value traded for a stock divided by the total number of shares this stock traded. The amplitude in Ticks simply represents the difference between daily high and daily low price of the stock expressed in Ticks or minimum price moves.
Using the bps measure, investors can gauge past intraday risks and returns in terms of the initial outlay or investment required. For instance if a stock price is $10.00 and the stock trades on average, a 20 cent price range between the daily high and low, the average intraday range would be 200 bps (or 2.0%).
Diversification’s Impact on Index Volatility
The STI is a highly competitive and diversified benchmark index. The 30 constituents have foundations spanning three centuries while maintaining significant local and regional economic exposures. Hence the weightings, in addition to the diversity of the Index can diffuse overall volatility impacts of segments and individual constituents.
This is exemplified by the 8.9 percentage point difference between the average 90 day volatility of the STI constituents and the volatility of the STI in its weighted index form.
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